Monday, May 4, 2020

so, these are the newest antibody numbers from new york, on saturday:

Bronx: 27.6%
Brooklyn: 19.2%
Manhattan: 17.3%
Queens: 18.4%
Staten Island: 19.2%

still no error bars, but the sample sizes in specific boroughs are much lower, so you could potentially add an extra 10% to any of those numbers (or remove as much).

those numbers are still lower than i expected, but it's high.

and, the decrease in transmission is no doubt resulting from increased presence of antibodies, at least partially.

note now that it seems as though an american firm is pushing an antibody test, so expect the msm to turn on a dime with this. they're terrible. consistently. but, we'll see if the yankee tests are as good as the other ones, now. i would hardly expect substantively different results, but we'll see.

the caveat from the start was always mutations and different strains. if there are multiple viruses going around rather than just one, which appears to be the case, then you would expect the tests to miss the infections that they weren't created for. further, you would expect a possibility of catching the various different stains, because they are no longer the same virus.

the mutation rate of this thing appears to be continually being revised upwards, meaning that these numbers might only be a half or a third of the story.

how do we find that out?

the answer is that we do more antibody testing.