the concern is that people will be afraid to go shopping, which will put the economy into a recession. ok. and, that would have been an entirely reasonable concern, even ten years ago.
but, something that's happened over the last ten years is that people have stopped going to malls, anyways - they do almost all of their shopping on the internet, with the glaring exception of groceries.
now, i'm not saying that the kind of effect this will have on businesses is obvious, but i can make a few suggestions:
1) if a longterm fear of going outside kicks in, it could be the final end for certain businesses that have seen their profits come down in the internet era. these would be stores in malls that sell goods that can be easily purchased online. this should be seen as a natural die-off, and nothing should be done to help these businesses. in the end, we may look back and see this as a major catalyst to end certain retail sectors, but we shouldn't delude ourselves - the virus is not the cause of these failures, and this was happening anyways.
1) if a longterm fear of going outside kicks in, it could be the final end for certain businesses that have seen their profits come down in the internet era. these would be stores in malls that sell goods that can be easily purchased online. this should be seen as a natural die-off, and nothing should be done to help these businesses. in the end, we may look back and see this as a major catalyst to end certain retail sectors, but we shouldn't delude ourselves - the virus is not the cause of these failures, and this was happening anyways.
2) the corollary of this fear of going outside hurting brick & mortar stores would be that the business would be shifted to online stores, who could see a major uptick in sales.
so, is stimulus pointless? no. it just needs to be understood where it's going.
and, is recession inevitable? not in totality. certain sectors may get hit, but it's likely to be more of a shift in gdp than a decline in it, because it's increasingly the case that most people do most of their shopping at home, anyways.
as was the case in 2008, we may see a restructuring kick in that signals a final nail in the coffin of these brick & mortar businesses that were dying anyways. and, as was the case in 2008, this restructuring will probably be permanent.
so, that's my read on what the smart kids do about this - they realize the shift in technology that's happening, and they adjust.
so, i would support stimulus, but i would oppose bailouts to brick & mortar stores. this shift needs to be embraced. and, that may be the longer term consequence of this.